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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."